Under the right conditions, large groups can be very intelligent, often more so than the smartest expert in the room.
What do intelligent crowds look like? Look at the racetrack. A crowd at a racetrack can give a near perfect forecast of the future. Crowd is a mix of experts, novices and cranks. Similar is the stock market. Over time it is very difficult for even the best money managers to outperform the stock market. (Or look at newsfutures.com.)
(Lots of stuff here that it would be good to see graphs and examples.)
Aggregation can happen in many different ways.
Diverse crowds are far more likely to be intelligent than non-diverse crowds.
I know most of this already. Time to skip to another panel…

